After the competition narrowed down between Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil and MP Alain Aoun, preparations for the Free Patriotic Movement Chief elections are ongoing. However, it is still unclear until now if there will be a third candidate, or if the competition will remain between these two.
Some opinion polls among FPM voters have indicated that MP Alain Aoun has 60% of the votes while Minister Bassil has 40%. This has necessitated an urgent intervention by Hezbollah and a personal interference by current FPM Chief Michel Aoun in order to tip the elections in Bassil’s favor. Sources indicate that Hezbollah prefers Bassil as the head of FPM for several reasons, especially since Bassil has been kept up to date with the Memorandum of Understanding between the Party and FPM, as well as his distinctive relations with the leaders of Hezbollah. It should be noted that Bassil’s engineering office had taken part in the reconstruction of Dahyeh with Jihad al Binaa Company which belongs to HA. Sources add that Bassil is appointed by General Michel Aoun to be the sole person to follow-up with Hizbollah, especially after Brigadier General Fayez Karam was exposed and accused to being an Israeli spy. Sources state that all areas which are mixed with Hezbollah and FPM started experiencing a mobility to support Bassil at the expense of MP Alain Aoun. In a related context sources in Lebanese Polling and Statistics firms pointed out that the number of FPM members reached 50,000 in 2005, but this amount dramatically dropped to 15,000 after applicants withdrew their applications on one hand, and committees in charge of applications refused some applicants on the other hand. Sources indicate that this number (15,000 FPM Members) does not give MP Michel Aoun the right to speak on behalf of 70% of the Christians especially if we consider that the average Christian family in Lebanon rarely exceeds 5 members. This means that FPM supporters, at best, are about 75,000 Christians. This means that FPM has 7.5% of Christians, and this number neither gives Gen. Aoun the right to appoint the Army General, nor the right to claim the presidency as an exclusive right for him. Sources add that FPM Christian allies cannot be classified as members of FPM. Marada MP’s take their orders from MP Suleiman Franjieh, and other MPs like Emil Rahme, Fady Aawar, Talal Arslan, Abbas Hachem and others are not FPM. This number of members, sources conclude, reflects the truth of the FPM situation which has been amplified by Gen. Aoun.